How does POTUS Grades score presidents?

POTUS Grades shows the real-world outcome for 12 scored categories, caps historical outliers at the 5th and 95th percentiles, converts each result to a comparable 0–100 historical score, and combines available categories with fixed weights.

Which categories are included in the presidential scorecard?

The scorecard includes economy, employment, prices, income, housing, healthcare, crime, deficit, debt, wars, global standing, and presidential approval. Lawful immigration is displayed as context without a directional score.

What data sources does POTUS Grades use?

The refresh pipeline uses public data from FRED and its originating agencies, the FBI Crime Data Explorer, Defense Casualty Analysis System, National Archives, Gallup, DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics, and UCSB American Presidency Project approval tables.

Methodology

This project starts with outcomes people can recognize: jobs, prices, income, housing costs, crime, war deaths, and approval. Each card shows the real-world value first. Twelve directional categories also receive a historical 0–100 score; lawful immigration is shown as neutral context because more or less is not inherently better.

Scoring window offset: loading setting.

How Scoring Works

Scoring window: loading setting.
Step 1: Calculate the stated real-world term outcome. Missing observations stay missing; they are never replaced with a synthetic zero.
Step 2: Cap historical outliers at the 5th and 95th percentiles so a single extreme term cannot dominate the scale.
Step 3: Rank each available result against other presidential terms. Direction is stated in advance.
Step 4: Combine available historical scores using the fixed weights below. The displayed coverage count shows how many measures have data.
Step 5: Convert the overall score to a letter grade. Active terms are explicitly marked provisional.

Category Definitions

Economy (10%)
Annualized growth in real GDP per person across the term. Higher is better.
Source: BEA series A939RX0Q048SBEA via FRED.
Employment (10%)
Average share of adults ages 25–54 who are employed. Higher is better.
Source: BLS series LNS12300060 via FRED.
Price Inflation (10%)
Average year-over-year CPI inflation. Lower is better.
Source: BLS series CPIAUCSL via FRED.
Income (10%)
Annualized growth in real median family income. Higher is better.
Source: Census series MEFAINUSA672N via FRED.
Housing (10%)
Estimated annual principal-and-interest payment on the median new home as a share of median family income, assuming 20% down and a 30-year mortgage. Lower is better.
Sources: Census/HUD median new-home price MSPUS, Freddie Mac mortgage rate MORTGAGE30US, and Census median family income MEFAINUSA646N via FRED.
Healthcare (8%)
Average year-over-year medical care price inflation. Lower is better.
Source: BLS medical CPI series CPIMEDSL via FRED.
Crime (8%)
Average annual homicide rate per 100,000 people. Lower is better. National data in this pipeline begin in 1985, so earlier terms display an honest gap.
Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer.
Deficit (8%)
Average federal deficit as a share of GDP. Lower is better.
Source: OMB series FYFSGDA188S via FRED.
Debt (8%)
Change in federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP. A smaller increase or a decline is better.
Source: CBO series FYGFGDQ188S via FRED.
Wars (8%)
Average annual U.S. military hostile-action deaths, with calendar-year totals prorated to the exact term window. Annualizing makes terms of different lengths comparable. Lower is better. Vietnam-era totals come from National Archives; data from 1980 forward come from the Defense Casualty Analysis System.
Global Standing (5%)
Median worldwide approval of U.S. leadership. Higher is better. The comparable Gallup series begins in 2007, so earlier terms are not scored on this category.
Source: Gallup World Poll.
Approval (5%)
Average net job approval—approval minus disapproval—when both are available. Higher is better.
Source: FiveThirtyEight archived data with UCSB American Presidency Project fallback.
Immigration (context only)
Average annual number of people granted lawful permanent residence. This is displayed without a weight or directional score.
Source: DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.

Known Limits

These are outcomes during a term, not proof that the president alone caused them. Congress, the Federal Reserve, courts, states, global shocks, and inherited conditions also matter.
Crime is unavailable before 1985 in the selected FBI series, and comparable global-leadership polling begins in 2007. Scores are reweighted over categories that actually have data.
The war measure captures U.S. hostile-action fatalities, not every human cost, veteran injury, civilian death, covert operation, proxy conflict, or diplomatic consequence.
Housing is an illustrative affordability estimate, not a full household budget or rent measure.

Grading

A: 86-100
B: 71-85
C: 56-70
D: 41-55
F: 0-40

Primary Sources

FRED series originating with BEA, BLS, Census, HUD, Freddie Mac, OMB, and CBO
FBI Crime Data Explorer
Defense Casualty Analysis System and National Archives
Gallup World Poll
DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics
FiveThirtyEight archives and UCSB American Presidency Project